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Lethal heatwaves predicted unless climate change is reduced

12/02/2008

If climate change continues then serious heatwaves, malaria outbreaks and an increase in skin cancer are more likely, experts warned today.

A report published by the Health Protection Agency (HPA) and the Department of Health (DoH) says the UK is adapting well to rising temperatures experienced since the 1970s but claims negative health impacts and an increased risk of flooding are likely.

It concludes that if no action is taken to avoid significant climate change this century then by 2012 there will be a one in 40 chance that the south-east of England will experience a serious heatwave causing 3,000 immediate heat-related deaths.

Although malaria outbreaks are likely to remain rare, the report says health authorities need to be prepared for the possibility of larger outbreaks in continental Europe and the emergence of more deadly European strains of mosquitoes in wetland areas of Britain.

The experts also say tick-borne diseases are likely to become more common and increased exposure to sunlight will lead to a rise in skin cancers.

Devastating flooding as experienced across England this summer is predicted to become more likely, with the number of people at high risk from flooding set to rise from 1.5 million to 3.5 million by 2100.

And food poisoning, including salmonella, is set increase by 14,000 cases per year.

Positive predictions include the expectation that winter deaths will continue to decline as the climate warms.

Expert panel chairman Professor Robert Maynard from the HPA said: "Climate change is likely to be one of the major challenges that humanity faces this century.

"It is important that we assess the possible health impact and take any actions that could minimise the consequences. The publication of this report is a significant step in that process."

The report's findings will form the basis of the agency's response to a recent request for information from the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution to help its study on adapting to climate change.