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Urban areas 'key to Tory victory'

30/04/2008

Liberal Democrat election chief Lord Rennard has predicted "lots and lots of gains" for the Conservatives in tomorrow's local elections.

The party's chief executive believes Labour are set for big setbacks across the local elections, despite the party in government needing gains to recover from its disastrous post-Iraq 2004 showing.

Lord Rennard believes "par" for the Tories is a gain of around 300 seats, a higher expectation than most analysts who believe 200 is a more realistic target.

He predicted David Cameron's party will do particularly well where they are represented at Westminster and in the suburbs, but believes the real test comes in town centres.

Lord Rennard singled out Oldham as a "bellwether" for the Tories' prospects. The Conservatives held a majority there in the 1979 elections which swept Margaret Thatcher to power, but are now reduced to just three seats.

"This, and areas like it, are the areas the Conservatives must win if they are to stand a chance of winning the next general election," he told journalists in Westminster.

On his own party's prospects, Lord Rennard hinted that overall losses are a strong possibility. The Lib Dems lost 246 seats in 2007 and, despite only aiming to show a "significant improvement" on that result, Lord Rennard remained upbeat.

"We believe the elections will reveal who are best-placed to challenge Labour," he added.

In many areas, however, the Lib Dems are on the defensive against attacks from both the left and right.

The Tories are expected to push the Lib Dems "backwards" in rural areas, while Labour are posting a strong challenge in areas like Cardiff, Newcastle and Sheffield.

This is no more the case than in Liverpool, where the Lib Dems currently hold 47 seats. Forty-six are needed for control and Labour have acknowledged the city is their "number one target".

"It's a straight fight," Lord Rennard admitted.